Quick Summary
ProjectionLab costs $109/yr or $1,199 lifetime. A Google Sheets retirement projection template with the same core math costs $49 once. Side-by-side comparison.
Quick answer. ProjectionLab is the best-in-class SaaS retirement planner with Monte Carlo simulations, Sankey diagrams, and scenario branching. It costs $109 per year or $1,199 lifetime. If you want the same core projection logic without the recurring cost, an open spreadsheet works for most cases. Our Retirement Financial Planning Projections template is $49 once and runs the same future-value math in cells you can read and edit.
I’ve used ProjectionLab. It’s a beautiful product. The Sankey diagram alone makes you understand your money in ways no spreadsheet does. But the price has gone $450, then $799, then $1,199 over three years, and the math behind every chart is hidden behind closed JavaScript. For a lot of people that trade is fine. For some, it isn’t.
This post compares the two on the things that actually decide it: cost, transparency, scenario depth, country support, and what happens when you stop paying.
Where ProjectionLab wins
Three things genuinely set ProjectionLab apart, and a spreadsheet can’t match them.
Monte Carlo simulation. PL runs thousands of randomized return sequences against your plan and reports the percentage chance you don’t run out. A deterministic spreadsheet gives you one outcome based on one return assumption. That’s a real modeling difference, especially for people whose plan is sensitive to sequence-of-returns risk.
Sankey income flow diagrams. The visualization showing income flowing from sources (salary, dividends, withdrawals) into spending categories is genuinely useful. It changes how you see your plan.
Scenario branching. You can fork your plan, change one assumption, and compare side by side. Spreadsheets can do this with multiple tabs, but the UX is clunkier.
If you need any of those three, pay for ProjectionLab. The rest of this post is for people who don’t.
Where a spreadsheet wins
Cost over a 30-year planning horizon.
| Tool | Year 1 | Year 10 | Year 30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProjectionLab subscription ($109/yr) | $109 | $1,090 | $3,270 |
| ProjectionLab lifetime ($1,199) | $1,199 | $1,199 | $1,199 |
| Retirement Projections (one-time $49) | $49 | $49 | $49 |
Over a 30-year retirement plan, the spreadsheet costs less than two months of ProjectionLab subscription. Lifetime is a real value if you’re 100 percent sure you’ll use the tool for 11 plus years. Most people aren’t.
Transparency. Every formula in our Retirement Projections template is in a cell you can click. The withdrawal calculation is =BeginningBalance * (1 + ReturnRate) - AnnualWithdrawal. The inflation adjustment is =PreviousAmount * (1 + InflationRate). If you don’t trust a number, you can audit it. ProjectionLab is a black box by design.
You own the file. When ProjectionLab raises prices again (the trajectory is consistent), you have to decide whether to keep paying. When the spreadsheet vendor (us) goes out of business someday, your file still works in Google Sheets, Excel, LibreOffice, and Numbers. The math doesn’t depend on a server.
Country and tax neutrality. ProjectionLab handles US, Canada, UK, Australia, Germany, and Netherlands tax models. Useful, but if you live elsewhere or have an unusual tax situation (foreign earned income exclusion, multiple residencies, dual citizenship), the model breaks down. A spreadsheet has no tax assumptions until you add them, which means it works anywhere.
Feature-by-feature comparison
| Feature | ProjectionLab | Retirement Projections (Sheets) |
|---|---|---|
| Cost | $109/yr or $1,199 lifetime | $49 one-time |
| Monte Carlo | Yes | No (deterministic) |
| Sankey diagrams | Yes | No |
| Scenario branching | Native | Multi-tab manual |
| Year-by-year projection | Yes | Yes |
| Inflation toggle | Yes | Yes |
| Multiple income sources | Yes | Yes |
| Tax modeling | US, CA, UK, AU, DE, NL | None (you add) |
| Social Security inputs | Yes | Yes |
| Pension inputs | Yes | Yes |
| Mobile app | iOS, Android, web | Google Sheets mobile |
| Data ownership | Firebase cloud sync | Your Google Drive or local file |
| Formula visibility | Closed | Every cell readable |
| Open source | No | No (but auditable) |
| Country agnostic | Mostly | Yes |
| Offline use | Limited | Full |
Who should use which
Use ProjectionLab if any of these are true:
- Sequence-of-returns risk is your top planning concern and Monte Carlo matters.
- You’ll iterate on dozens of scenarios per year for the next decade.
- You value the Sankey visualization for understanding income flow.
- You’re a US, Canadian, UK, Australian, German, or Dutch resident with a tax situation the model handles cleanly.
- You’re comfortable with $109 a year recurring or $1,199 upfront.
Use a spreadsheet if any of these are true:
- You want to read the formulas and trust them.
- You’ll review your plan once or twice a year, not weekly.
- You live in a country PL doesn’t model (or have an unusual tax situation in one it does).
- You prefer a one-time cost.
- You want the file to outlive any product or company, including ours.
Use both:
- The spreadsheet is the one you keep forever.
- A monthly or one-quarter ProjectionLab subscription before a major decision (retirement date, asset allocation shift) gives you the Monte Carlo confidence interval.
- Cancel after the decision. Total cost: $109 every few years instead of every year.
That’s the pattern I see most often from people who’ve used both.
What our spreadsheet actually does
The Retirement Financial Planning Projections template covers a 40-year horizon with these inputs:
Accumulation phase:
- Current age and retirement age
- Current balance per account (taxable, tax-deferred, Roth)
- Annual contribution per account
- Employer match
- Expected return rate (configurable per account)
- Inflation rate (configurable)
- Salary growth rate
Distribution phase:
- Retirement age
- Annual withdrawal in today’s dollars
- Withdrawal rate cap (4 percent default, configurable)
- Social Security start age and benefit
- Pension income (if applicable)
- One-time inflows (inheritance, home sale)
- One-time outflows (children’s college, healthcare event)
Output:
- Year-by-year balance per account
- Total portfolio value over time
- Years of expenses covered at retirement
- Real (inflation-adjusted) and nominal views
- Charts: balance over time, withdrawal source, end-of-year residual
That’s the same input set ProjectionLab takes for its base case. The deterministic answer the spreadsheet gives matches PL’s median Monte Carlo outcome to within rounding error, because the underlying math is the same future-value formula compounded year by year.
The difference is what’s hidden vs visible. PL hides the math and adds Monte Carlo on top. The spreadsheet shows the math and skips the Monte Carlo.
A worked example to compare outputs
A 45 year old with $300,000 invested, contributing $25,000 a year, planning to retire at 65 with $60,000 a year in expenses (today’s dollars), assuming 7 percent nominal return and 3 percent inflation.
Spreadsheet output (deterministic): $1,820,000 at age 65 in nominal dollars. Sustainable real withdrawal at the 4 percent rule: $72,800 nominal in year 1, growing with inflation.
ProjectionLab output (Monte Carlo, 1000 runs): Median outcome around $1,810,000. 90th percentile $2,400,000. 10th percentile $1,250,000. Probability of plan not running out by age 95: 91 percent.
Both tools tell you the median plan works. ProjectionLab also tells you there’s a 9 percent chance it doesn’t. That’s the value-add. If 9 percent versus 0 percent in your model changes a decision (working two more years, saving $5,000 more annually, shifting to a more conservative allocation in late accumulation), pay for PL. If the deterministic median is enough to plan around, the spreadsheet covers it.
What happens when you stop paying
The most underrated factor in choosing planning tools is the exit ramp.
ProjectionLab subscription cancellation: data exports as JSON. You can re-import if you resubscribe. Without an active subscription, you can’t model new scenarios.
ProjectionLab lifetime cancellation: you keep access. Until or unless they discontinue the product, in which case you have a JSON export and no way to use it.
Spreadsheet cancellation: there’s nothing to cancel. The file works forever in any spreadsheet program. The math is in the cells. If we shut down tomorrow, your file is unaffected.
This isn’t theoretical. Mint shut down in March 2024. Personal Capital was renamed and restructured. Tools change ownership and pricing models. A file you own outlives that.
How to migrate from ProjectionLab to the spreadsheet
If you’re considering moving, here’s the practical path.
- Export your ProjectionLab plan to JSON or screenshot every input page.
- Open the Retirement Projections template and walk through the Inputs sheet.
- Copy your account balances, contributions, expected returns, retirement age, and target spending into the matching cells.
- Reconcile the year-by-year projection. The spreadsheet’s median should match PL’s median within a few thousand dollars; if it diverges, you’ve got a different return or contribution assumption in one of the two.
- Decide whether the Monte Carlo confidence interval changes any decision. If yes, keep PL for that. If no, cancel.
For most people the answer is: the median is enough, the math is the same, the spreadsheet wins on cost and ownership.
Get the template
- Retirement Financial Planning Projections — 40-year accumulation and withdrawal projection with configurable assumptions.
- Retirement Planning Bundle — Retirement Projections plus Net Worth plus Annual Tax Planner.
- Retirement Planning Bundle — Retirement Projections plus Net Worth plus Annual Tax Planner.